Tinubu’s Economic Reforms Gain Recognition as Fitch Gives Nigeria Positive Outlook
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reform programme has received another boost as Fitch Ratings revised Nigeria’s economic outlook from Stable to Positive, maintaining the country’s credit rating at ‘B’.
The latest assessment, announced on October 9, 2026, reflects what the rating agency described as sustained reform momentum, stronger foreign exchange reserves, easing inflation and improvements in Nigeria’s external financial position.
The Federal Government, through the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, welcomed the decision, saying it reinforces growing confidence in the country’s economic direction.
Fitch said its Positive Outlook indicates the possibility of a future rating upgrade if Nigeria sustains its current reform efforts and achieves further improvements in key economic indicators.
The agency highlighted Nigeria’s more flexible exchange rate system and the rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves as major contributors to the improved outlook.
Official figures cited in the assessment showed that gross foreign exchange reserves increased to $54.9 billion as of September 25, 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.
The increase was attributed to stronger portfolio inflows, higher export earnings, increased remittances and improved formal foreign exchange transactions.
Fitch projected Nigeria’s current account surplus at 6.4 per cent of GDP in 2026, suggesting improved capacity to withstand external economic pressures.
The agency also forecast economic growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026, compared with 4 per cent in 2025, with growth expected to remain above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028.
It said non-oil activities would continue to drive economic expansion.
Nigeria’s oil sector also featured in the assessment, with Fitch noting that crude oil production had met the country’s OPEC target of 1.5 million barrels per day since May 2026.
The agency said increased domestic refining was helping to reduce petroleum product imports and ease pressure on foreign exchange demand.
On inflation, Fitch projected the average rate to decline to 15.4 per cent in 2026, less than half the level recorded in 2024.
The agency also expressed optimism about the impact of Nigeria’s tax reforms on non-oil revenue, projecting general government debt to average 32 per cent of GDP from 2026 to 2028.
That projection is considerably lower than the 56 per cent median for countries in the ‘B’ rating category.
Fitch further acknowledged Nigeria’s domestic debt market and banking sector reforms, noting that many banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent following recapitalisation efforts.
Reacting to the development, Oyedele said the government viewed the improved outlook as recognition of the difficult but necessary decisions taken to strengthen the economy.
He listed fuel subsidy removal, exchange rate unification and landmark tax reforms among the major policy changes introduced under Tinubu.
The minister also noted that S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’ in May, while Moody’s Ratings revised its outlook to Positive in August.
Nigeria’s return to Frontier Market status under FTSE Russell, effective September 21, 2026, was another development highlighted by the government.
Despite the positive assessment, Oyedele acknowledged that the country still faces significant economic challenges.
He said inflation remains above levels in comparable countries, government revenue is still relatively low, and interest payments consume a large proportion of public earnings.
To address these challenges, the government pledged to sustain exchange rate reforms, strengthen tax collection, improve public spending, ensure transparent debt management and promote economic diversification.
Oyedele said the administration would also focus on converting macroeconomic stability into improved living standards through job creation, food security, human development and support for small businesses.
He stressed that the government’s ambition extends beyond securing favourable credit ratings, adding that the reforms are intended to lower borrowing costs, attract investment and create employment opportunities.
The minister said sustained reforms, further reductions in inflation, stronger external reserves and increased non-oil revenue would remain central to Nigeria’s efforts to achieve further credit rating improvements and eventually attain investment-grade status.
My recommendation: Use Version 1 for a straightforward newspaper report, Version 2 to emphasise Nigeria’s improved international credit standing, and Version 3 for a political-economic report focused on the Tinubu administration’s reforms.
